MALADAP-TREE

Coordinating institution: Université Grenoble Alpes
Partner institutions: INRAE 
Project leaders: Thibaut Capblancq (Université Grenoble Alpes)
Project duration: 48 mois | 1 octobre 2025 → 30 septembre 2029

In alpine tree species, different populations often develop local adaptations in response to the heterogeneity of the mountain environment. Ongoing climate change will disrupt this adaptive equilibrium, with the risk that populations will become mal-adapted to their future environment and decline in the near future.
Yet mountain forests are a reservoir of biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services (e.g. water retention, timber, erosion, recreation).
The aim of this project is to assess the vulnerability of populations to climate change for multiple tree species that structure French mountain forests (Common beech, Norway spruce, Silver fir, European larch and Scots pine).

The impact of climate change on biodiversity is commonly assessed using species distribution models, which do not consider intraspecific variability resulting from local adaptation, leading to an underestimation of the risks faced by natural populations. In order to integrate this important intraspecific level into predictions of French mountain forests vulnerability to climate change, our project aims to assess the proportion of climate impact on trees’ fitness that is mediated by genetic diversity.

Work package 1 will be devoted to characterizing the link between climate and fitness in populations of the different species using multiple sources of data (i.e., growth, survival, germination). These data will come from national forest inventories, provenance trials or common gardens already established and will be supplemented by the collection of new dendrochronological data from natural populations.
The objective here will be to identify the differences in response of local populations and species to climatic variations, in order to understand the degree of climate specialization (i.e. local adaptation) of the populations as well as their climatic tolerance (i.e., plasticity).

Work package 2 will identify the genes influencing the intraspecific relationship between fitness and climate in order to train predictive ecological genomics models that estimate local risks of maladaptation to climate change. The predictive capabilities of the models will be evaluated using field phenotypic data, derived from the provenance trials mentioned before and/or from national forest inventories.

The final work package of the project (WP3) will aim to share our results with the stakeholders interested in mountain forests health and co-develop tools that will help inform future management measures and policies in French mountain forests.

This research will combine an ambitious integration of multiple streams of data on mountain trees with the production of high-resolution dendrochronological and genomic data, and the development and validation of predictive ecological and genomics models. At a fundamental level, this project will be crucial for better understanding the link between fitness, genetics, and climate in alpine forest trees, as well as the adaptive capacities of these species.
From an applied research perspective, it will offer a more precise evaluation of the risks posed by climate change to natural alpine tree populations. Additionally, the project will foster knowledge-sharing and the co-development of tools with local stakeholders to proactively address the potential impacts of global warming on France's mountain forests.